¿VAYA UCRANIA POR VENEZUELA?

¿VAYA UCRANIA POR VENEZUELA?

No sé nada, pero se me ocurre que acordó con Putin que le da Ucrania a cambio de Venezuela, y quizás Cuba, ya que estamos. Las viejas esferas de influencia, los viejos temas de seguridad, con o sin acuerdo. Si no acordó con Putin, lo imitó, con mucho más éxito, haciendo rápido y bien en Venezuela lo que el otro quiso hacer (y probablemente vaya a hacer) en Ucrania con tanto desgaste, tanta demora y tanto aislamiento.

Según Niall Ferguson, la jugada es "reverse Nixon": ahora se trata de favorecer (o vencer) a Rusia para meter una cuña entre Rusia y China. Porque el único problema real de EEUU es China y el único objetivo de China es Taiwan. Rusia había celebrado un tratado de eterna fraternidad con China antes de lanzarse contra Ucrania, bien cubiertas las espaldas. Para China era un globo de ensayo, siempre con miras a Taiwan. Bueno, el experimento salió mal.

Entonces Rusia dobló la apuesta tratando de instalar misiles en Venezuela, algo que para EEUU es anatema y casus belli, como lo ha demostrado desde Kennedy. Ahora Trompita les da una lección de cómo se hace: un ejército eficiente y altamente tecnificado (el avión EA-18 G GROWLER fue de un éxito tan resonante como sorpresivo), una operacion rápida e irresistible, más el CONSENSO EN LA POBLACIÓN. Espero que China no la aprenda...

UKRAINE FOR VENEZUELA?

I know nothing for certain, but my impression is that a deal with Putin may have been cut: Ukraine in exchange for Venezuela—and perhaps Cuba as well, for good measure. The old spheres of influence, the old security doctrines, with or without a formal accord. And if there was no agreement with Putin, then Trump imitated him—far more successfully—by doing swiftly and decisively in Venezuela what the other sought to do (and may yet do) in Ukraine, where it still remains bogged down in attrition, delay, and international isolation.

According to Niall Ferguson, this is a case of “reverse Nixon”: the strategy now is to favor—or defeat—Russia in order to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing. For the United States has only one true problem: China; and China has only one objective: Taiwan. Russia had sealed a treaty of “eternal fraternity” with China before launching its assault on Ukraine, its rear covered. For Beijing, it was a trial balloon, always with Taiwan in mind. The experiment, however, went badly.

Russia then raised the stakes by attempting to deploy missiles in Venezuela, something which is anathema and a casus belli for the United States, as it has made cristal clear since the days of Kennedy. Now Trump offers them a lesson in how it is done: a technologically advanced and efficient military, An efficient, highly advanced military (the EA-18G Growler aircraft turned out to be a success as striking as it was unexpected), deployed in a rapid and irresistible operation, and, crucially, CONSENSUS, not only at home but in the target as well. One can only hope China does not learn it.